Though MBS were not quite as thinly traded as treasuries (lowest volume since the first trading day of 2010), the picture wasn't much better. At least that which is at risk on low volume days--volatility due to the trading that actually happens comprising a larger portion of the total--was not present. Quite the opposite in fact, as the the sam...Read More
The market is duller than a Colts victory parade at the moment. We're dealing with a fairly standard issue "calm before the storm" that we often see on a data-limited Monday when the rest of the week contains the more significant events. The supportive trends we began to note in the last post have continued to foster a narrow range of...Read More
As AQ pointed out this morning, today's slightly downward trend in MBS price began in the final hours of Friday's trading. Both MBS and Treasuries put in their best marks of the day just before 2pm, and have moved steadily downward ever since. You may notice, however, that both markets appear to be losing that negative steam near current le...Read More
DID I MENTION THUNDER SNOW ! By the look of the charts, it doesnt appear that we should be expecting any noticeable improvements in positive price momentum today. We are extending the downtrend that began midday Friday. The FN 4.0 is -0-08 at 98-08 yielding 4.169% and the FN 4.5 is -0-05 at 101-08 yielding 4.375%. The secondary market current coupo...Read More
Good Morning. Congrats to the Saints. Here is a recap of my weekend.... We had a blizzard...32 inches of THUNDER SNOW . The driveway was defeated with snowblowers. This is only the first half of the driveway by the way.... The CAPS came from behind to beat the pens. Ovie had a trick plus the game winning assist in OT. Thats 14 in a row for the C-A-...Read More
When something is on a doorstep--any doorstep--there are only two places it can be going: either back inside the metaphorical house, or back to the world outside. Bonds, as represented not by our namesake MBS, but by the 10yr Treasury note, find themselves in just such a dualistic state this evening. They too, are on a doorstep, their location bein...Read More
After reaching as high as 101-20, MBS 4.5's are back down to 101-14. Its seems that layers of support are building at levels that would leave 4.5's at PAR after settlement next week. Far be it from me to suggest there's some sort of external force that continues to push 4.5's toward that 101-00 level, but it LOOKS that way on the ch...Read More
Even by the time of our last commentary, it was no mystery that we got our bond-friendly eventuality today after the jobs report. That's nice, of course, but somewhere between 3.55 and 3.57, chart watchers will notice that yields held under these levels for the majority of the 2nd half of 2009. It's probable that the short term chart below ...Read More
The dust is starting to settle after the initial knee jerk reaction to the Employment Situation Report. Stocks are still dealing with yesterday's sovereign debt/jobs data/panic induced weakness. The S&P is currently -0.14% at 1060. The dollar is holding onto yesterday's FLIGHT TO QUALITY rally, currently +0.46% at 80.283. (Global debt f...Read More
20,000 jobs were lost in January according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate fell from 10.0% to 9.7%. This will surely grab headlines... JAN NONFARM PAYROLLS -20,000 (CONSENSUS +5,000) VS DEC -150,000 (PREV -85,000) JAN JOBLESS RATE 9.7 PCT (CONS 10.1 PCT) VS DEC 10.0 PCT (PREV 10.0) JAN AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS +0.3 PCT (CONS...Read More
